The Challenge of Marketing Attribution: Seeing Beyond The Inflatable Man

Imagine attributing every car sale to the inflatable man dancing at the front of a dealership, just because it's the last thing a buyer sees. Ridiculous, right?

Imagine attributing every car sale to the inflatable man dancing at the front of a dealership, just because it's the last thing a buyer sees. Ridiculous, right? But this is the way many marketers look at attribution. Just because it’s the last thing a customer saw, doesn't mean it was wholly responsible for the sale. "What marketers need to measure is the incrementality," says Paul Sinkinson, our MD for Australia and Asia, "And that's where we come in."

Too often, as marketers, we're looking for the silver bullet, the golden ticket, the One Ring of marketing effectiveness that we can plough all our money into for guaranteed returns. That's why, for instance, performance media, tends to get more credit than it deserves as Mikael Dannerstedt, our AVP for Asia, explains:

"Search can get way too much credit because most marketers are unaware of what led a consumer to search for their product in the first place. Was it a review on social media, a friend's recommendation, or an out-of-home ad?"

Basically, without integrated data it's impossible to tell, which can lead to a misattribution of time, effort and funds.

How to work out what REALLY drives sales?

Despite the best efforts of countless management consultants, most companies - and their data - are still stuck in silos. And nowhere is this truer than in the marketing department, as former client-side marketer (and current Analytic Partners Marketing & Communications Director) Nikki Taylor knows all too well.

"Often the so-called digital team only looks at what's happening online whilst everyone else looks offline, with both competing to claim credit for the sale (and I’ve not even mentioned the sales department!). At Analytic Partners we see it as our job to break down these silos, combining data from online, offline, and external factors like economic sentiment and even weather patterns to get a comprehensive view of what's really driving sales."

Is more technology the answer?

The recent rise of machine learning has turbocharged data collection and validation, which seems sensible, after all more data = more insights, right? Not quite! This new abundance of data can often cloud rather than clarify the picture but humans are surprisingly adept at seeing through the clouds and uncovering individual insights and opportunities.

"Machine learning makes data processing faster, but pairing it with strategic human insight is key," says Jo-Ann Foo, Senior Director of our Client Engagement Team down under.

As an example she recalls how, during the dark days of Covid 19, she and her team worked out that out-of-home ads could prove great value despite the dramatic drop in foot traffic. Why? Because when foot traffic drops so does the price of media space but Aussies were still legally allowed to purchase groceries in person so ad space next to, or on the way to, grocery stores was great value. "That takes human imagination," Jo Ann continues, "But combining it with machine learning is what makes us unstoppable."

Should we measure things differently, or measure different things?

Marketing has evolved from simple mix models to comprehensive commercial analytics, which is…er, Mikael?

"Commercial analytics looks at literally everything that drives impact for the business. So, is it the fact that you've changed payment terms? Is it the fact that your range is changing? Is it government legislation? Because in reality marketing drives somewhere between 5 and 15% of sales, so what are the other factors?"

This is hugely valuable to the CMO, it puts them in the strategic driving seat as they have a full understanding of the context in which the business, not just the marketing, operates.

Paul provides an example:

"An online retailer grew through search until it became prohibitively expensive. They didn't diversify because it seemed to work, until it didn't. Commercial analytics helps avoid such costly mistakes."

Analytic Partners' approach isn't theoretical, it's backed by results. "We helped McDonald's double their ROI over five years by considering factors like weather, creative content, and restaurant refurbishments," says Jo Ann. "We found digital works best when integrated with TV, radio, and outdoor, and that creative significantly impacts ROI."

Is it different in China?

With US$233.1bn in ad-spend last year, China cannot be ignored, which is why we have had a team deployed there since 2018. Commercial analytics may still be an emerging discipline there but it's already having an impact as our VP of Client Engagement in Shanghai, Jun Cao, explains:

"In China, commercial analytics and marketing mix modelling is not common practice so when we began working with a global Consumer Packaged Goods brand last year there was a lot of skepticism about our work. However, we identified more than 10% improved efficiency through optimisations across platforms and formats such as social media, Douyin digital display and even new platforms like Pinduoduo."

The experience that makes us experts

"In 25 years of measuring and optimising media, the biggest takeaway is that online and offline both drive sales," says Paul. "Out-of-home boosts e-commerce; paid search helps brick-and-mortar. No one lives entirely online or offline."

Now as we enter the era of Commercial Analytics we're excited to help marketers plan for different scenarios, optimise campaigns and formats, and measure marketing’s impact on revenue against ALL internal and external factors not just attribution.

Marketing attribution isn't about the last touchpoint, it's about understanding the full customer journey. By combining data, technology, and strategic insight, Analytic Partners helps brands move beyond simplistic models to drive sustainable growth. It's not just about what works, but why it works and how to make it work even better.

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